The scorecard, as it stands
No strict call has been graded yet. This page explains what that means, what is being counted, and where to see the live record.
The live scorecard is the authoritative record. Figures on this page are as documented on 30 September 2026.
Counted so far
- Graded strict calls under
ne-grade-v1: 0 - Open strict calls under the current methodology: 0
- Independent catalyst families resolved toward the publication floor: 0 of 30
- Strict calls invalidated and kept on the record: 1
Not shown, on purpose
- A hit rate. It stays locked until 30 independent families resolve.
- Returns from the historical event study. Those were reconstructed, not called live.
- Scenario-explorer results. Those are hypothetical views and never write to the record.
- Monitored narratives. They are tracked, but never enter hit-rate statistics.
Why the count is zero
The gates are strict, and we don't loosen them to produce calls.
Most stories that come close fail on evidence quality: a headline with no body text, a single source, or a direction that can't be determined. Others fail because the company's revenue-exposure profile is provisional. Each of those is recorded with the reason it stopped, so the funnel from tracked to qualified is visible on the Signals dashboard.
A low count is a cost of the method, not a hidden result. When calls are made, they are hashed and anchored before any outcome exists, and graded by the frozen contract.
The invalidated call
In July 2026 our first strict overreaction call, on Alphabet, was invalidated for data quality.
The company match had come from mentions of unrelated peers in the same articles, not from news about Alphabet. The record was not deleted or edited. It stays on the public scorecard, marked invalid, with the reason and time of invalidation.
Records the system produced before hashing was deployed also stay public, labelled as legacy and unanchored. They are never presented as proof of anything made at the time.
How each record is labelled
- Strict
- Passed every gate and anchored. Counts toward the publication floor once graded.
- Monitored
- A narrative worth watching. Resolves as tracked, never as a hit or miss.
- Invalid
- Withdrawn for a stated reason. Visible, never graded.
- Legacy, unanchored
- Created before hashing existed. Visible, never presented as anchored.
- Data unavailable
- Required prices were missing. Retried; never graded on substitute data.